The Grand Punk Part 7

Sometimes when things seem too unbelievable to be true,

they are just that: not worthy of belief.

 

The scenarios that attempt to describe what happened in the Kristen Stewart/Rubert Sanders cheating “scandal” fall into three broad classifications:

• The Kristen and Rupert Were Having An Affair and Got Caught Scenarios,
• The Kristen and Rob Are in a Relationship and the Affair Was Staged Scenarios,
• Kristen and Rob were in a Relationship or a Faux Romance and the Affair Was Staged Scenarios.

Let’s examine the scenarios within each group in detail and evaluate how they stack up in terms of the provable evidence which we discussed in The Grand Punk Part 6.

A. The Kristen and Rupert Were Having an Affair and Got Caught Scenarios

There are roughly five principle scenarios of this type all of which rely on the central notion that Rob and Kristen were in an ongoing relationship and that Kristen had a tryst with Rupert.

Scenario 1. The Lucky Paparazzi

This is the prevailing theory of what happened as provided by US Magazine and FameFlyNet, the paparazzi firm that claims they took the “scandal” photographs. On close examination it is also the most suspect one of them all in terms of the truth.

SUMMARY: A lucky paparazzi who works for FameFlyNet routinely follows Kristen from the gym on July 17th to Los Feliz where he sees her take a call, change course, and drive to a rundown, abandoned warehouse area in LA. She parks and waits and the paparazzi watches. After about 15 minutes, Rupert “slips” into her car and they engage in a heated make out session that includes him “kissing all over her body”. The paparazzi calls for reinforcements and three more photographers eventually join the chase. Kristen and Rupert subsequently leave that area and drive around looking for and finding other places to make out. Eventually at about 5:15 pm, they arrive at a secluded, park-like setting which includes an overlook of the Hollywood sign and downtown LA where Rupert directs her where to park. After further making out in the car, they dodge hikers, dog walkers and other passer bys, eventually venturing out of the car, where they make out further at the overlook guardrail, including Rupert dry-humping Kristen from the rear with both of them fully clothed.

Quoting from US Magazine’s description: “When it seemed quiet in the park, the two dared to leave the car to take in the view. Leaning against the guardrail, with all of Hollywood stretched out before them, he embraced her from behind and caressed her hand and side.” Every time someone came through they separated.

Following another twenty minute session of kissing in the car, Kristen drives Rupert to within three blocks of his house and after a final kiss, drops him off. He subsequently walks home. FameFlyNet sells the photos to US Magazine and they break the story on or about July 24th. Kristen and Rupert almost immediately confess to People Magazine and FameFlyNet eventually sells the rest of the pictures to PopSugar and others.

PRINCIPAL STRENGHS: Photographic “evidence” constituting approximately 50 pictures released by US Magazine and displayed on the internet at PopSugar.com; apologetic “confessions” purportedly made by both Kristen and Rupert on July 25th; and accounts of the paparazzi that purportedly took the pictures as described by US Magazine and FameFlyNet.

PRINCIPAL WEAKNESSES: Despite the length of the single day encounter, only about 50 photographs were provided in a scrambled order, many of them innocuous (16), and with no video provided; described events, particularly at the guardrail, take place out in the open with little attempt to hide their identity; many of the photos appeared staged or lacking in any real passion; 7267Pacific View Drive, the scene where the “overlook” photos were actually taken, is actually a guard rail on a residential street with no view of LA or the Hollywood sign, and thus entirely inconsistent with where FameFlynet claims this happened; 2272 S. Centinela Avenue, the place where two of the other photos were taken, is also entirely inconsistent with where FameFlyNet claim they happened, as it is a fenced lot of a business place in Santa Monica, not an abandoned warehouse area; and finally such behavior was highly inconsistent with Kristen’s proven long-standing proclivity to protect her privacy.

ANALYSIS & CONCLUSIONS: Important aspects of this scenario’s account are most certainly false as two of the locations where the critical photos were taken are clearly inconsistent with where FameFlyNet claims they were actually taken. The FameFlyNet/US Magazine account lies about or is oblivious to these known facts. It is also clear that the guardrail photos could not have been taken after 5:15 pm as is claimed. Finally, it is also clear that the story was intentionally embellished by FameFlyNet and US Magazine to try to make it look more carnal than it actually was compared to what was depicted in the provided photographs.

Given these problems, if US Magazine and FameFlyNet lied about the time, the place, and circumstances of the photographs, how can they be believed as to the rest of what they claim, particularly when they have failed to produce other evidence of the events and to identify or produce the so-called witnesses. If FameFlyNet had more photos or video, they most assuredly would have released them by now and if they have others they have intentionally withheld evidence. For all of these reasons, this scenario is not based on the type of evidence that a reasonably prudent person would rely on to make an important decision in their life. It should be rejected as an explanation of what happened in this incident.

[For a detailed critique of this entire scenario, see the Grand Punk Parts 1-5]

Scenario 2. The Lucky Paparazzi Un-embellished

This scenario tries to account for some of the weaknesses in the above described scenario by discounting the paparazzi provided commentary and relying much more heavily on the photographs themselves and the admissions made by the parties.

SUMMARY: A paparazzi routinely follows Kristen on July 17, or on some other date, from the gym to nearly Los Feliz when he sees her take a call and change course and drive back towards Santa Monica. Eventually she arrives at the address of 2272 S. Centinela Ave., which is a business place with a walled and gated parking lot, where she picks up Rupert Sanders and drives to an as yet unidentified location where they park the car and engage in a heated make out session which is photographed.

Afterwards they drive to a residential street in the Hollywood Hills overlooking Universal City. They leave the car and make out at a guardrail on the side of the road in plain view where they are further photographed. She then drives to the area of his house where she drops him off and he walks home. The paparazzi sells these photos to FameFlyNet and either they or FameFlyNet provides an embellished account of the events to US Magazine along with the photos. US Magazine then breaks the story on the July 24th and Kristen and Rupert confess on the 25th before the magazine is released.

PRINCIPLE STRENGTHS: This scenario accounts for some of the difficulties of the version in Scenario 1 above by discounting the paparazzi’s claimed observations and relying more on the photographs and the confessions themselves. After all it argues, the photos arguably show Kristen and Rupert embracing each other at multiple locations and they did confess after the fact. It also offers a possible explanation why no other photos were taken: because it was only a brief, limited encounter involving a sole paparazzi who was having difficulties photographing them. This scenario is also much more consistent with Kristen’s confession of a “momentary indiscretion.

PRINCIPLE WEAKNESSES: This scenario has all of the same problems with the photos the previous scenario above and the confessions remain problematic. Given that the pictures lack a narrative, it cannot answer a claim that the photographs were entirely staged.

ANALYSIS & CONCLUSIONS: There is still a serious problem with this scenario in that it makes absolutely no sense why Rupert and Kristen would choose a very public, meaningless location (at the guardrail) to make out and why they failed to take steps to avoid being detected. But beyond that, the lack of a more complete set of pictures and video continues to make it highly problematic. Even a single paparazzi would have had an opportunity to take many more pictures and video*. And yet all we get is a highly selective and limited set.

Discounting the paparazzi version of events in this scenario also leaves the pictures without an eyewitness narrative, which invites rampant speculation about the incident instead of detached fact finding. As the pictures are capable of multiple interpretations, they don’t “speak” for themselves. Lacking such a narrative, who’s to say that the entire set of photos wasn’t staged as part of an elaborate ruse? And finally, even if you discount the paparazzi’ commentary, the fact that the photographer lied and their story had to be discounted weighs heavily against even this scenario. This scenario is not based on the type of evidence that a reasonably prudent person would rely on to make an important decision in their life and should also be rejected.

Scenario 3. The Paparazzi On A Mission

This scenario tries to answer the criticism that the paparazzi just lucked into discovering the affair and that Kristen’s recklessness is explained by the fact that she and Rupert were involved in a longer, raging affair, and that she was in effect out of control. It posits that the paparazzi were actually intentionally following her for days after receiving a tip that she and Rupert were involved, and that this surveillance led to the photographs of July 17th at multiple locations.

SUMMARY: Paparazzi systematically followed Rupert and Kristen after being tipped that they were in an ongoing affair of unknown length. On July 17th in the course of following Kristen, she was seen picking up Rupert at or near TJZ Productions as is evidenced by PopSugar photo #26 . They were subsequently followed by a paparazzi to an as yet unidentified parking lot and the guard rail location where they were surreptitiously photographed making out.

PRINCIPAL STRENGTHS: This version at least tries to explain why Kristen and Rupert were comfortable enough with each other to do what they did in broad daylight and in the relative open, in essence blaming it on uncontrollable lust. It also attempts to provide the explanation of why she was being followed in the first place and that the photos were not just the result of dumb luck. This “ongoing affair” theory was buttressed by claims that Liberty Ross’ brother told People, a British news and gossip magazine that the affair dated back to the filming of Snow White and the Huntsman; by photos of Kristen and Rupert on set “looking” enamored with one another; photographic “evidence” claimed by Hollywood Life Magazine that Kristen and Rupert shared a romantic post production dinner date together in Berlin; and the belief by some that it didn’t “seem” like a momentary indiscretion.

PRINCIPAL WEAKNESSES: Despite the claim of an ongoing affair, we are still left with a limited number of pictures and no video. The pictures themselves fail to establish that such ongoing, pre-incident surveillance ever occurred. Many of the photos appeared staged or lacking in any real passion despite the claim of an ongoing affair and a loss of control. If they were so in lust and out of control why aren’t the photos more carnal, why does Kristen fail to look Rupert in eye in the whole set of photos at the guard rail, and why aren’t their hands ever placed anywhere remotely erogenous on each other’s bodies? Furthermore, 7267 Pacific View Drive appears a highly unlikely place to chose to engage in an ongoing affair since a hotel or other private place would be so much more useful to have sex at. And most importantly, the claim that they were actually involved in a longer term affair is suspect and unsubstantiated and is little more than an urban myth.

ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS: This scenario is attractive to those who “feel” that the affair was neither momentary nor fleeting. But it is also a prime example of how the celebrity gossip machine can spin a tale out of nothing more than rumor and innuendo. Following People Magazine’s release of Kristen’s “momentary indiscretion” statement on July 25th, both the media and public began to try to square her statement with the notion of a longer term affair. Almost immediately on July 25th, Hollywood Life reported on photographic “evidence” of a romantic post production dinner date that Kristen and Rupert had shared in Berlin in May. Several other media outlets then began combing through photographs and videotape of them during filming and during promotional tours to “prove” that they were enamored with each other.

Then came a July 31 Fox News interview with Randy Bauer, the president of paparazzi firm Bauer-Griffin and a major competitor of FameFlyNet. He claimed that he had “heard” that US Weekly assigned FameFlynet to follow Stewart and Sanders on a tip that the two were getting busy behind closed doors. “From what I heard, it was an assignment, the magazine was actually working the story. (The story) didn’t come from the photographers, it was the other way around: it went editorial to photo, as opposed to photo to editorial.” Yet Bauer had a monetary incentive to try to explain why his firm was “scooped” by his rival FameFlyNet. But his account, once again relying on unnamed sources, added fuel to the fire that the affair was not momentary.

Then The People, a British news and celebrity gossip website, followed with a claimed interview of Liberty’s brother who said that the affair went all the way back to the filming of Snow White and the Huntsman. With it, the ongoing affair scenario blazed to life.

The only problem is that several of the underpinnings of this scenario have been significantly undermined and others are based on clear misrepresentations of the facts. People Magazine, citing their own unnamed sources within Liberty’s family, claimed that neither the family nor her brother was ever contacted by the media and that the interview was completely fabricated. A closer examination of the cast dinner photos, and particularly a video of it, clearly showed that Kristen’s so-called “enamored looks” at Rupert were actually directed to Charlize Theron, who was seated between them and was obviously speaking to them both at the time. Not to mention that other cast and crew members were at the “romantic” dinner.

Hollywood Life intentionally cropped the photos to “hide” Charlize behind Rupert and misrepresent what was truly occurring at the time. The Rupert & Kristen photo they cropped went viral before most realized it was not a fair representation of what happened at the dinner. All of the other photos and video failed to establish anything beyond the fact Rupert and Kristen looked at each other from time to time while working together. No smoking gun there. And Randy Bauer’s claim remains totally unsubstantiated.

Bald rumors, unidentified sources, intentional misrepresentations, and unsubstantiated claims are not the type of evidence that a reasonably prudent person would rely on to make an important decision in their own life. This scenario should also be rejected.

Scenario 4. The Private Eye

This scenario attempts to explain some of the weaknesses of the prior scenarios by positing that a private investigator was tailing Kristen and Rupert in order to “prove” they were having an ongoing affair, most likely at the behest of Rupert’s wife, Liberty Ross, and/or potentially Kristen’s boyfriend Robert Pattinson.

SUMMARY: In this scenario Liberty Ross (with or without Rob) hires a private eye to investigate whether Kristen and Rupert are having an affair. The investigator follows Kristen and Rupert and is able to secure incriminating photographs of them at two different locations which are provided to Liberty. Enraged at her husband’s affair, and intent on destroying Kristen’s career and personal life, Liberty Ross leaks the photographs to FameFlyNet who claims them as their own. They then embellish a story based on them and without any real knowledge of where they were taken and under what circumstances, sell them to US Magazine. Upon being advised of the pending release of the US Magazine story, Kristen repudiates Rupert, and makes a confession through a statement to People Magazine. Rupert reacts similarly shortly thereafter.

PRINCIPLE STRENGTHS: If Liberty Ross or Rob was the client of the actual photographer, that might finally explain why only a limited number of the photographs were released. Just enough to expose the affair, without releasing everything else including potentially completed sex acts that would cause Liberty and Rob further undue embarrassment.

PRINCIPLE WEAKNESSES: The notion that Liberty or Rob hired an investigator is entirely unsubstantiated and speculative. Even if they hired one, how much more embarrassing would it have been to release all of the photographs instead of this limited set. And even if initially some were held back, if Liberty was that hell bent on destroying Kristen, why not release the rest of them later as Kristen’s successful re-emergence occurred. That would be the perfect time for Liberty to strike again, yet it didn’t happen. The failure of her to do so without an adequate explanation remains problematic, and suggests that there simply aren’t any more pictures to be had. And the scenario, like the one before it, posits an ongoing affair, which remains is based on groundless speculation.

ANALYSIS & CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence that Liberty hired such an investigator or that there was an ongoing affair necessitating the use of a private investigator to prove it. (See argument above regarding how an ongoing Kristen/Rupert affair is an urban myth). And more generally, this is not the type of evidence that a reasonably prudent person would rely on to make an important decision in their life. In point of fact, it’s not based on any evidence at all. This scenario should also be rejected.

Scenario 5. The Kristen and Rupert Didn’t Care if They Were Caught

This scenario posits that Kristen and Rupert fell in love or in lust and intentionally wanted to be caught so that they could bring their affair out in to the open and potentially dump their respective significant others so that they could be together.

SUMMARY: In this scenario Rupert and Kristen fell in love or lust and hooked up on the day in question to further that relationship. A paparazzi followed them from the point where Kristen picked Rupert up near TMZ to a place where they stopped and made out in the car. Then Rupert and Kristen changed locations, eventually arriving at the Pacific View Ave. location. At that place they continued their tryst. Kristen and Rupert were fully aware that they were being followed and quite frankly didn’t care that they were being photographed, as each desired to end their relationship with their significant others. Kristen then dropped Rupert off near his house.

Just so we are clear, this scenario belongs in this category because they were seeking a romantic encounter that day and they got caught. They didn’t “stage” the photographs, they simply didn’t care once they realized they were caught or engaged in the activity fully intending to be caught.

Principle Strengths: This scenario attempts to account for why the photos were as tame as they were and why they were so public with their affections. They knew they were being watched and didn’t care if they were. It also accounts for why in some of the photos they appear to be looking straight at the photographer.

Principle Weaknesses: If this was the plan, Kristen obviously opted out of it as she apologized and sought Rob’s forgiveness, assuming you believe the confessions. You could argue that once it was hatched she immediately had second thoughts, hence the immediate apology shortly after the story broke and the subsequent one from Rupert. But once again, just as in scenario 3 above, there is no credible evidence that Rupert and Kristen were in fact in any such long term affair or that they had any intention of leaving their partners.

Seemingly, it would have been much easier to simply leave their partners and become a couple if that was their intention. A complex plan with a very public breakup was not necessary to accomplish that result and would have been much less damaging to Kristen’s career and much less embarrassing to Rob, Rupert, and Liberty. This scenario also fails to explain why Kristen was so intent on being intentionally cruel to Rob: Out in public, wearing his clothes and one of his favorite hats, the dry hump, etc. Why was she so intent on intentionally humiliating him?

Once again, this scenario is not based on the type of evidence that a reasonably prudent person would rely on to make an important decision in their life. This scenario should also be rejected.

Summary Conclusions

In summary, none of these Kristen and Rupert Were Having an Affair and Got Caught scenarios “fit” with the provable evidence in this case and none are based on the type of evidence that a reasonably prudent person would use to make an important decision in their life. Barring significant new evidence, they should all be rejected.

In Part 8 and 9, we will examine scenarios under the other two broad classifications:

• The Kristen and Rob Are in a Relationship and the Affair Was Staged Scenarios,
• Kristen and Rob were in a Relationship or a Faux Romance and the Affair Was Staged Scenarios.